Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Hillary Clinton's Asian Silk Route and Nuclear War with Pakistan

If there was any doubt about Hillary’s warning about US military attack on Pakistan, it was further clarified by Carl Levin’s (chairman, senate committee on armed services). He said that US interest would be protected at the cost of Pakistan. It settles the issue. Officially, America has made it clear that Pakistan would be attacked to save America. Thus, clock is ticking against Islamabad to ‘do more’ or ‘return to stone age’. It settles the issue and now it is clear that on the streets that America is willing to attack Pakistan on one pretext or the other. Washington has increased military presence on Afghan side of Pakistan border to show that it means business. There is a problem with Washington
bullying approach. India had to accept humiliation by withdrawing its entire military might which it had amassed against Pakistan in 1986 (Operation Brasstacks). America is welcome to attack Pakistan. 

It will not be the first time that it will cross Pakistan’s border in violation of international law, but what will America do if Pakistan nukes illegal forces on Pakistan soil and its supporters across the border. America is conversant with Pakistan’s policy of using nuclear force in self defense. The world knows that Pakistan is a responsible state and unlike imperial America it will resort to ‘talk-talk’ option instead of resorting to tried, tested and failed ‘fight-talk’ option. But under no circumstance America agenda can be imposed at the cost of Pakistan’s national security and interests in the region.

American narrative of so-called war against terrorism (SWAT) is now twisted into Haqqani narrative to secure America’s security and economic interests in the region. Pakistan therefore has to expose their double speak and stand up for its interests. If America has made up its mind, our political leadership should call the Washington bluff to attack Pakistan to free Islamabad from its dictator era imperialist agenda in the name of bilateral relations. Hillary vehemently defended US sponsored anti-Pakistan, Pak-Afghan Trade Agreement (PATA) as harbinger of trade and prosperity for people of Pakistan. The fact is America is using PATA to dictate an American version of “Asian Silk Route” linking Turkey, Afghanistan and India in the region. Hillary’s words that stakes are too high to leave Pakistan alone show the scale of economic and strategic advantages for Pakistan-China shortest possible “Asian Silk Route” from Gwadar to Europe via South China and Russia. Both Russia and China have already established rail links with Europe. 

India is supporting America to gain access to the markets of Central Asian Republic States (CARS). India lacks requisite infrastructure and technology to compete with China. Delhi needs markets to support its military ambitions in the region and access to CARS is of critical importance to save India from disintegration.

Indian economy is already wobbling under the weight of endemic corruption, growing poverty with 800 million Indians living below one dollar a day, and 18 insurgencies (India’s Tommy Hilfiger utopia is a bluff that will soon be called across the globe, the Guardian Oct., 9). Humiliated Indian Congress is desperate to win the next election and without CARStrade corridor, Indian business community will withdraw its support and it will lose the next election. 

Istanbul is also trying to grab a stake in the Great Game in return for its support for Israel in ME and permanent European membership. Istanbul will the only Muslim country that will stand with Israel and US in wake of favorable UNSC decision on Palestine’s statehood based on UN Resolution legitimizing pre-1967 borders. Since, Washington and Tel Aviv don’t intend to uphold international law so Istanbul is supporting US version of Asian Silk route. A careful look at the world map will show that with the start of Asian Silk Route from Pak to China will leave Mediterranean Sea route redundant. 

China alone will use Gwadar to import 25 percent of its energy supplies from ME and it will boost Saudi Arabia’s exports. In short , it is fight of over $700 bn annual trade corridor which America is not ready to let go under any circumstances. Pakistan therefore needs to identify friends from opportunists. Pakistanis remember how Washington and Istanbul failed to support Pakistan during 1971 war (Shabnama, Qudratullah Shab). In short, Hillary’s promise of Pak-US partnership is in fact as ill fated as consummation of ‘black widow’ relationship. It can be averted provided Washington withdraws its plans to attack Pakistan and returns to ‘talk-talk’ option.

America has to give clear timeline to win the confidence of regional powers. Hillary has said that America has no plans to stay in Afghanistan. It is a bluff. America will maintain its military bases in Afghanistan and it is using SWAT to re-write anew deal with Pakistan. PPP government, weakened by corruption, failed economy and energy crisis is supporting Washington’s game plan. Delhi has shown that it does not support US attack on Pakistan. In a statement it was said that Pakistan and America should return to dialogue. 

India cannot afford to allow permanent US presence in Afghanistan against the wishes of Pakistan and in the process Delhi would not like to anger regional powers demanding US withdrawal from the region as a precondition for restoring peace. China, Russia and most CARS states have demanded end of foreign occupation of Afghanistan. Delhi cannot stand against the regional consensus and expect to gain trade and commerce corridors.

Delhi may have tickled America to play its final card of ‘gunboat’ diplomacy of threatening a sovereign state but it cannot support and stand with Washington because it could cost it its stakes in ASEAN and SCO. Use of force is not an alternate to diplomacy and America’s use of its military card is reaching its end. Washington’s use of drones in Libya and other parts of the world including Pakistan is going to meet its logical end in The Hague. Hillary by defending US drone attack policy has made it easy for the International Courts to prosecute her also. India should therefore distance itself from American polices in the region if it really wants to restore peace in the region and gain from the Pak-China Asia Silk Route. 

US and Afghanistan have lost the great game. Gwadar-South China trade corridor is the only Asia Silk Route and India can only benefit if it is willing to settle the Kashmir issue so that trade corridor is further widened and both countries can benefit from it. Afghanistan can also join Pakistan as its allies not as supporter of anti-Pakistan and ant-region American policies. 

American cannot maintain anti-Pakistan security setups in US embassies in Pakistan and expect to have support at grassroots. Hillary did not deny presence of US contractors in Pakistan. Islamabad should not succumb to US threats. America is welcome to attack Pakistan. It will help public to get rid of PPP US puppet regime in elections and allow to pursue independent foreign policy to protect its national interests. Pakistan can be made safe within days by reducing size of US diplomats to single digit, seal Pak-Afghan border, cut NATO supplies and use SCO observers on border so that world knows that Afghan resistance is indigenous. America cannot blame Pakistan for freedom fighters resistance against Afghan occupiers which is legitimate and recognized by UN laws. The bottom-line, America and Afghanistan have been left out of the Asian Silk Route. Washington has to withdraw from Afghanistan and accept its defeat in the region. It should respectfully seek Pakistan’s assistance to use Gwadar-China Asia Silk Route to compete for its fair share in regional trade. It is a different debate if America can compete in Asia because it has lost its manufacturing edge to its corrupt bankers and failed capitalism.


volunteer PPP said...

Another brilliant effort. Agreed with your thoughts on this issue. Keep it up.

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